USD/JPY Technical Analysis March 21, 2025
Current Price Levels and Technical Indicators:
As of 5:00 AM GMT on March 21, 2025, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading around 148.76, exhibiting a cautious stance below the psychological 150.00 level.
- Moving Averages: The pair is trading below the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish momentum.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is moderately positive, suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact without signaling overbought conditions.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Based on current technical analysis, the following support and resistance levels are identified for USD/JPY:
Resistance Levels:
- R1: 149.20
- R2: 149.50
- R3: 150.00
Support Levels:
- S1: 148.00
- S2: 147.40
- S3: 146.50
A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 150.00 on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential obstacles for upward movement.
Fundamental Factors:
Several fundamental factors are influencing the USD/JPY pair:
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Outlook: The Fed maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025, providing a modest boost to the US dollar.
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy: The BoJ recently maintained its rates and flagged economic uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
- Geopolitical Developments: Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions underpin the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese yen, acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Conclusion:
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a cautious manner below the 150.00 level, with technical indicators suggesting potential bearish momentum. Traders should monitor the 149.20 resistance and 148.00 support levels closely. Upcoming economic data releases, particularly Japan’s inflation figures, and geopolitical events are likely to introduce volatility, necessitating attentive risk management.
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