UK inflation expectations ease as BoE considers next rate hike

LONDON (Reuters) -Inflation expectations in Britain eased in April, bank Citi said on Monday, offering some relief to the Bank of England which is expected to announce a 12th straight interest rate hike next week with investors betting on further increases after that.

Citi said its monthly survey conducted by market research company YouGov showed public expectations for inflation in 12 months’ time eased to 5.2% in April from 5.4% in March and expectations for five to 10 years ahead fell to 3.6% from 3.7%.

Citi economist Benjamin Nabarro said Britain’s high inflation problem – the country’s main measure of consumer price growth remains above 10% – were reflected in the findings which held well above pre-pandemic ranges,” the report said.

“However, today’s data still suggest UK inflation expectations overall remain anchored at target-consistent levels,” Nabarro said.

“With acute shortages and food inflation primarily responsible for recent volatility, we think risks around these data are more likely to ease in the months ahead than intensify further.”

The BoE is widely expected to raise borrowing costs again on May 11 after its monthly monetary policy meeting, with inflation running at five times its 2% target.

Investors are putting a 92% probability on a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.5% and roughly 50 chance of hitting 5% by August.