Crude Oil Technical Analysis March 25, 2025
As of 8:00 AM GMT on March 25, 2025, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at approximately $69.10 per barrel, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous day’s close of $69.16.
Current Price Levels and Technical Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 45, indicating a neutral market sentiment with neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Moving Averages: WTI crude oil is trading near both the 50-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), suggesting a balanced short-term outlook without a clear trend direction.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Key levels to monitor include:
Support:
$68.50: Aligns with recent lows and may provide immediate support.
$68.00: A significant level that could reinforce support.
Resistance:
$69.50: A recent high that could act as immediate resistance.
$70.00: A significant round number and previous resistance level.
Fundamental Factors:
Several factors are influencing crude oil prices:
Trade Tariffs: The announcement of a 25% tariff on countries importing oil from Venezuela has introduced new dynamics to the market. While some analysts express concerns about potential economic slowdown and reduced demand, others note that tighter sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil could decrease supply, potentially supporting prices.
Supply Disruptions: Recent supply disruptions have contributed to price fluctuations, with markets reacting to both geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns.
OPEC+ Production Decisions: OPEC+ is anticipated to increase oil output for a second consecutive month in May, aiming to balance global supply and demand.
Production Growth Forecasts: Forecasts indicate that non-OPEC+ oil production growth will slow if crude prices decline, potentially influencing global supply and supporting prices.
Conclusion:
Crude oil prices are experiencing volatility amid new trade policies, supply disruptions, and strategic production decisions by major oil-producing entities. Key support levels are identified at $68.50 and $68.00, while resistance is anticipated at $69.50 and $70.00. Market participants should closely monitor developments related to trade policies, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical events, as these factors are likely to influence oil prices in the near term.