Crude Oil Technical Analysis March 19, 2025
As of 5:00 AM GMT on March 19, 2025, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are trading at approximately $66.75 per barrel.
Current Price Levels and Technical Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is currently at 36.65, indicating that the market is approaching oversold conditions.
Moving Averages:
- 5-period Simple Moving Average (SMA): Trading at $66.56, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.
- 10-period Simple Moving Average (SMA): At $66.63, also indicating bearish sentiment.
- 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA): Located at $67.10, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: The next support level is identified at $66.50 per barrel. A break below this level could lead to further declines toward $65.00.
Immediate Resistance: The first resistance level is near $67.20 per barrel. A sustained move above this level could signal a reversal in trend.
Fundamental Factors:
Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast: The investment bank has lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, citing risks related to tariff escalation and high spare capacity.
OPEC+ Production Decisions: Eight key members of the OPEC+ alliance have postponed planned production increases due to weaker demand and increased output from non-allied countries.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, with Chair Jerome Powell addressing the press afterward. Any hints of a rate cut could weaken the USD, potentially boosting commodity prices, including crude oil.
Conclusion:
Crude oil prices are currently experiencing bearish momentum, with technical indicators such as RSI and moving averages suggesting oversold conditions. Fundamental factors, including Goldman Sachs’ revised price forecast, OPEC+ production decisions, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance, are contributing to market volatility. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as upcoming economic events, to navigate the current market dynamics effectively.